The end of each year ushers in numerous trends reports, all promising profound change in the next twelve months. This year is no different. However, we all know the truth about change: it happens slowly, then suddenly.
While this is often frustrating for many companies – how can you invest in the future when you’re unsure if and when it will arrive? – we believe the initial slowness of change is an incredible opportunity.
Instead of worrying about what will become the new norm, let’s examine and plan for a series of Gradual Builds that may one day take root. As many have quoted, and most attribute to former President Eisenhower, “Plans are useless, but the act of planning is indispensable.”
To that end, here are the Gradual Builds we’re monitoring and discussing with our client partners across the macro topics of Demographics and Diversity, Education, Housing, Identity, (In)equality, Information and Intelligence, Media, Money and Finance, Politics, Resources, and Work.
Demographics and Diversity
Falling Birth Rates and Changing Demographics
Birth rates are decreasing, high school graduates are projected to recede, and the demographics of younger generations will have more minority and mixed races than ever before. How will education, music, fashion, technology, influencers, and sponsorships evolve?
DEI
Were the initial Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) noble in purpose, or a reaction to perceptions and expectations of The Street. Will companies reverse DEI investments to satisfy investors? Will certain states protect and promote DEI principles while others roll them back? How will an evolving racial and ethnic population react?
Education
The Role of Higher Ed
Is attending college still the optimal decision for most high school graduates and young adults given increasing tuition, resulting debt, increasing school closures, employers’ desire for true work experiences, and the emerging promise of skills and certificates? Will international students remain a viable pipeline as politics evolve?
The Shift Right
Will conservative leaders continue to influence what is taught and how? Will state-funded colleges and universities bend to more conservative leadership? Will private institutions lean further left in response?
Housing
Home Buying and Moving
The elevated price of homes and higher mortgage rates have depressed sales and made owning a home unaffordable for many. Will industries such as furniture, inspections, insurance, autos, and banking benefit if this trend reverses? Or, will these industries experience consolidation if things don’t improve?
Renting
People will always need a place to call home, even if the structure isn’t theirs. If home prices remain elevated will renting a residence become a more acceptable strategy for longer periods of life? Or sleepy towns and less populated states become more attractive for likely lower prices?
Identity
Masculinity
Is it a difficult time to be a man? While some may scoff at the question, there is growing dialogue around the support system men need to thrive. This theme may grow in importance as many men struggle to feel a sense of worth and to find their place in society. Is the definition of masculinity bifurcating, or returning to its historical roots?
Loneliness
In 2023 the Surgeon General released an advisory on the danger of highlighting the physical, mental, and emotional tax it places on individuals. Some have found a sense of belonging in different communities, such as groups on social media, religion, crafts, and even AI chatbots. But a lack of connection still lingers for many. How can more people feel more connected – and what happens if they aren’t?
(In)Equality
The American Dream
Life has never been equal or fair but gains by large groups of the population made inequality easier to overlook. Now, the struggle is shared by many. For the first time in decades, children are not expected to surpass the financial achievements of their parents. Higher Education may be too expensive for many. Eating and remaining healthy is not attainable for all. Fluency in reading and math is facing an incredible stress test. Is the American Dream being threatened, or is it already nostalgic?
Appetite Depressant Drugs
As GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy become more common and offer access to better health, will people reduce the volume and types of food they eat? Will a smaller appetite impact overall healthcare needs and insurance coverage? Will physical activity benefit or be hurt by this? Or will “Ozempic face” deter people from using these drugs? Or, will the influence of these drugs wane as people only take them for a certain period of time?
Information and Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
In only one year, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has gone from over-hyped to under-hyped. Many people do not realize they are using it, are stuck in the early version of Chat-GPT, and cannot keep pace with the incredible rate of change. One of the more impressive advancements is certain models can now interact with users via voice and visual, thereby overcoming the limitations of AI-chat experiences. Is a more realistic view a portfolio of AI solutions? Will the implementation of AI across different industries create human backlash as jobs are automated?
Truth
Has truth become contextual? Echo chambers on cable and social have been feeding people their preferred version of truth for years, but the accepted hallucinations of Artificial Intelligence and the recent news that Meta is lessening/removing content moderation and fact-checking appear to amplify “truthiness” and outright falsehoods. How can people trust the information they access? What happens if truth no longer matters?
Media
Fragmented Media
People’s always-on, on-demand, and instant gratification have fragmented what used to be a relatively stable and predictable media landscape. Not only are channels/platforms expanding and contracting, but the best results often require marketing assets designed for each platform. Will platforms censor speech? Will AI-enabled bots flood channels? Is search and performance marketing poised for noticeable change?
Production
Will AI enable faster and more affordable production of content across the senses? Will this technology displace jobs, or will production move “in-house” as more companies are able to create more and better content themselves?
Money and Finance
Interest Rates and Inflation
As the Fed works to (hopefully) decrease interest rates, and inflation (hopefully) follows suit, will consumers be more apt to spend more? Will businesses regain access to cheap capital and more aggressive growth and hiring?
Currency
Will cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin, find everyday application? Will politics and speculation usher in an ongoing boom and bust era? In the longer term, will the U.S. dollar remain the global standard, or will it be replaced by another currency?
Politics
Federal vs. State
How should businesses operate nationally if more laws are handled at the state level? Navigating evolving data and privacy laws across states has already proven cumbersome. Will people decide where to live and work based on a single law (e.g. income tax, women’s rights, etc.) or the holistic governance of a state?
Geopolitics and Globalization
Is the historical era of globalization ending as countries adopt nationalistic policies? Is the threat of war creating new alliances and threats that global companies need to account for?
Resources
Climate Change
How will people and businesses react as the world gets hotter for longer? Will people move away from certain areas? Will winter sports become a rarity? How will the energy demand to cool houses and buildings impact grids? Will regional agriculture shift?
Energy
Is energy evolving or fragmenting? Will solar and wind replace natural gas and oil? Will electric cars overtake gas-powered ones? Will AI find a way to reduce energy consumption?
Work
Portfolio Careers
A successful professional life used to mean stability – remaining with the same company your entire working career. More recently, it has been about progression – moving up the ladder by taking on increased but related responsibilities with related companies in the same industry. The past few years point to a new definition of professional success: portfolio – moving up, down, and over to create a “spider web” of responsibilities and skills to give each worker greater agency during their career.
In-Office vs. Hybrid vs. Remote
Remote work seemed poised to become the new norm during the early years of COVID, but employers have been requiring more days in-office, with several notable companies now requiring a full five days. Will in-office regain the preferred and accepted working arrangement? Will developers and property managers need to introduce more meaningful benefits to earn the commute? If hybrid or remote remain, how will banks and local governments react?
Don’t get lost in the hype of new trends, but don’t overlook the potential impact of Gradual Builds. Here’s to a successful 2025, and beyond.
Jake Gerber
SVP, Strategy & Planning
BOSTON, MARS
